October 18, 2017
When the 2017 NFL schedule was released back on April 20, arguably the most-anticipated game on the slate was a Super Bowl LI rematch between the Falcons and Patriots in Foxboro this Sunday night.
Has it lost a bit of luster with the teams struggling more than expected? Perhaps, but you know emotions will be high on both sides. The Patriots are -3 on the NFL betting lines. Of course, New England rallied from a 28-3 third-quarter deficit back on Feb. 6 in Houston to stun Atlanta 34-28 in the first-ever Super Bowl overtime.
No team has repeated as the Super Bowl champion since the Patriots in the 2004 season. No Super Bowl loser has gotten back to the big game since those Buffalo Bills teams lost four straight Super Bowls in the early 1990s. No two teams have met in back-to-back Super Bowls since those last two Bills teams fell in SB XXVII and XXVIII blowouts to the Dallas Cowboys.
There are many reasons why it’s so tough to get back. For one, Super Bowl teams practice and play for nearly six weeks longer than those that miss the playoffs. Second, the NFL is a copycat league so other teams go raiding the Super Bowl teams, who tend to lose plenty of free agents due to the salary cap. But maybe it’s as simple as a Super Bowl hangover.
What’s amazing about this Sunday night’s game is neither resembles last year’s top unit yet. The Falcons led the NFL in scoring in 2016 by a mile at 33.8 points per game and had one of the Top 10 offensive teams in league history by many metrics as QB Matt Ryan won his first NFL MVP Award. The Patriots had the No. 1 scoring defense at 15.8 points per game and allowed 237.9 yards per game through the air.
Atlanta (3-2) enters this contest on a two-game losing streak, scoring just 17 points each at home in upset losses to the Bills and Dolphins, the Patriots’ AFC East rivals. The Falcons are averaging 24.2 points per game and Ryan is only the 20th-ranked passer with a rating of 87.3. He already has six interceptions, including one last week in the final minute that lost the game vs. Miami. Ryan led the NFL with a 117.1 rating in 2016 and had only seven picks.
Perhaps the Falcons’ offensive struggles can be tied to coordinator Kyle Shanahan being hired as head coach of the San Francisco 49ers the day after the Super Bowl loss. New OC Steve Sarkisian only had one year of NFL coaching experience and that was way back in 2005 as a QBs coach with the Raiders.
The Patriots, though, brought back every player of note on that defense (plus added top free-agent cornerback Stephon Gilmore) and didn’t lose coordinator Matt Patricia. Yet that group is last in total defense (440.7 ypg), last in pass defense (324.8 ypg) and 30th in points allowed (26.5 ppg). New England has become the first team in league history to allow six straight 300-yard passers.
All that said, Tom Brady has not lost to Atlanta in his career, and the Pats have covered the past five meetings. The Falcons are just 4-10 ATS in their past 14 after a loss. Give the 3 points here as the Patriots win by a touchdown in another high-scoring game.