Betting Picks

Week 5: Patriots at Buccaneers TNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

Raise your hand if you predicted the New England Patriots would be 2-2 through four games of the 2017 season and tied with the New York Jets for second in the AFC East. Ok, if your hand is up you are lying.

The Pats were heavy Super Bowl favorites entering the season and some believed a 16-0 regular-season record was possible. Instead, New England could fall below .500 with a loss Thursday night at a good Tampa Bay team. The Patriots are set as 6-point road favorites.

Optimistic Patriots fans are pointing to 2014 as reason not to panic. That year, New England was blown out Week 4 by a score of 41-14 in Kansas City to fall to 2-2. Tom Brady was supposedly washed up. The Patriots would lose only twice more that season on the way to beating Seattle in Super Bowl XLIX.

Brady has been magnificent so far in 2017 as he leads the NFL with 1,399 passing yards and is tied with Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers with 10 touchdown passes; Brady still hasn’t thrown an interception. New England is second in the NFL in scoring at 32.3 points per game.

The problem has been the defense, which is Coach Bill Belichick’s baby. Last year, that group was No. 1 in the NFL in allowing 15.6 points per game. This season, it’s allowing 32.0 ppg, second-worst in the league. It has allowed at least 30 points in three straight home games for only the second time in franchise history. New England’s 128 points allowed is the second-most through four games by a defending Super Bowl champion.

The secondary was expected to be a strength after the offseason addition of Buffalo No. 1 cornerback Stephon Gilmore, but that group has struggled and the team ranks last in passing yards allowed.

The Bucs (2-1) have played just three games because their Week 1 trip to Miami was postponed due to Hurricane Irma. Tampa is 2-0 at home following Sunday’s 25-23 win over the New York Giants.

Nick Folk kicked a 34-yard field goal as time expired, perhaps saving his job because he had missed two field goals and an extra point earlier in the game. If you watched HBO’s “Hard Knocks” this summer, you know the Bucs have had kicking woes dating to last season. Jameis Winston threw for 332 and three touchdowns against New York.

Tampa Bay played the Giants without three key defensive starters in linebackers Lavonte David (ankle) and Kwon Alexander (hamstring) and safety T.J. Ward. It’s too early in the week to determine their status for Thursday, but obviously the quick turnaround doesn’t help. Tampa will get back presumed starting running back Doug Martin off a suspension that began late last season.

The Bucs are just 1-5 in their history in Thursday night games and have failed to cover the spread in the previous four. New England has covered its past four road games and its best outing of this season was away from home (an easy win in New Orleans). Brady should have a big game against that injury-ravaged Tampa defense, which is generating no pass rush. Give the points as Pats win by a touchdown.