Betting Picks

Week 5: Chiefs at Texans SNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

No matter how much homework or statistical analysis someone puts into an NFL game, sports handicapping is simply an inexact science. There has never been more proof of that fact than the Week 4 Monday night game between the Redskins and Chiefs in Kansas City – with the Chiefs a 7-point consensus favorite and the OVER/UNDER at 48 points.

The Chiefs took a 23-20 lead over Washington with eight seconds left on rookie kicker Harrison Butker’s 43-yard field goal – it was his first NFL game after being signed off Carolina’s practice squad early last week. Thus, it looked like a losing wager for those who backed the Chiefs at -7 as well as OVER the total of 48.

Then a miracle happened and one of the “worst beats” in NFL history for those who bet the Redskins +7 and/or the UNDER. After the Kansas City kickoff was a touchback, the Redskins had time for one play. Kirk Cousins completed a short pass to Jamison Crowder, and the Redskins tried to start a lateral-heavy play. Except there was a fumble, and Kansas City linebacker Justin Houston scooped it up and ran it in from 13 yards out for a touchdown. Chiefs win 29-20, covering the 7-point spread and pushing the game OVER the total. An amazing ending.

It’s a second straight primetime game for the Chiefs, the NFL’s only unbeaten team left (and one of two perfect ATS teams along with Buffalo), as they visit co-AFC South leader Houston this Sunday night. Kansas City is a slim 1-point betting favorite.

The biggest storyline for the matchup likely will be the two most exciting offensive rookies in the league: Kansas City running back Kareem Hunt and Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson, sharing the field for the first time (although not at the same time). Hunt, a third-round pick, leads the NFL by a mile with 502 rushing yards and has reached 100 in all four games. He was kept out of the end zone Monday for the first time.

Watson was the No. 12 overall pick in this year’s draft; Houston traded its 2017 and 2018 first-round picks to Cleveland to move up and take Watson. He didn’t start Week 1 but relieved an ineffective Tom Savage, and Watson’s not giving that job up. He comes off one of the best games by a rookie QB in NFL history, throwing for 283 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for another TD as Houston scored a franchise-record 57 points in a 43-point blowout of Tennessee in Week 4.

Watson is only the second rookie (Fran Tarkenton, 1961) with at least 250 passing yards, four passing TDs and a rushing score in a game. The former Clemson star also is the first rookie QB with at least seven passing TDs and two rushing scores in his team’s first four games of a season.

The Chiefs are 5-2 ATS in seven trips to Houston but lost there in Week 2 last year, 19-12 in an ugly offensive game in which the teams combined for five turnovers and just 29 first downs. It’s obviously a short week for Kansas City, which has covered only one of its past five on the Sunday following a Monday night game. For that reason, Houston is the pick in this potential playoff preview.