Betting Picks

Week 4: Bears at Packers TNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

The NFL’s oldest rivalry is renewed in the Thursday night game this week as Chicago visits Green Bay. It’s the 195th meeting (including playoffs) between the NFC North foes and, amazingly, it’s all tied up at 94-94-6. It’s the 12th straight season they are showcased in a prime-time game and third in a row the Bears head to Lambeau on a Thursday night. Green Bay is a 7-point consensus favorite.

Both teams come off home wins over AFC North opponents in Week 3. Chicago was a 7-point home dog but knocked off Pittsburgh 23-17 in overtime. Not often an NFL team will win a game where its quarterback throws for just 101 yards as the Bears’ Mike Glennon did, but Chicago gashed Pittsburgh for 220 yards and two scores on 38 carries. Jordan Howard had 138 yards and both TDs, including the winning 19-yarder in overtime. The injury-ravaged Chicago defense held the Steelers to 282 yards of offense.

Green Bay was a 7-point favorite over the winless Cincinnati Bengals but found itself trailing 21-7 in the third quarter Sunday. Then Aaron Rodgers went to work. Rodgers would tie the game at 24 on a three-yard pass to Jordy Nelson with 17 seconds left, and then the Packers won it on Mason Crosby’s 27-yard field goal with 6:22 to go in the extra session. It was the first OT win of Rodgers’ career, which is frankly amazing. He came in 0-4 in regular-season overtime games and 0-7 overall, including the playoffs, in OT. He threw for 313 yards and three scores vs. Cincinnati.

The Packers are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL right now. Three defensive starters were out against the Bengals in lineman Mike Daniels (hip), outside linebacker Nick Perry (hand) and cornerback Davon House (quad). So were receiver Randall Cobb (chest) and left tackle David Bakhtiari (hamstring). Right tackle Bryan Bulaga did start despite an ankle injury but then reaggravated it during the game and didn’t return. With the short turnaround, all those guys are very much in question againstthe Bears.

Rodgers is 14-4 during his career in regular-season games against the Bears with 38 touchdowns, just nine interceptions and a rating of 105.7. Green Bay has outscored Chicago 240-120 in the last nine meetings, scoring at least 20 points in seven of those. Last year at Lambeau on Thursday night in Week 7, the Packers won 26-10. Rodgers threw for 326 yards and three scores on a whopping 56 attempts. Behind quarterbacks Brian Hoyer and Matt Barkley, now both gone, the Bears managed 189 total yards.

As at least a 7-point home favorite in this series Green Bay has won and covered three of the past five, so take Green Bay and give the 7 points on Thursday night. The Bears have played well in their two home games this year but were dominated in a loss at Tampa Bay. Chicago has covered only three of the past 13 in this series.