Betting Picks

Week 3: Raiders at Redskins Sunday Night Football Matchup Preview

The Washington Redskins traveled to Los Angeles and won and covered the 2.5-point spread against the Rams in Week 2, but it may have cost them their starting running back and Pro Bowl tight end.

Should starting running back Robert Kelley (reported broken rib) and Jordan Reed (sprained shoulder) miss Week 3, visiting Oakland’s opening consensus line of 2.5 points would grow as the Redskins would be missing two big chunks of their offense.

Granted, they don’t face each other often, but it marks the first time the Raiders are favored at Washington since 1995.

The Redskins are 5-5 straight up and 6-4 against the spread over their past 10 games. The Raiders are 8-2 straight up and 7-3 ATS, including covers in four of their last five, over their past 10 games.

A week after traveling to Tennessee and beating the Titans by 10, Oakland took care of business and covered the 14-point spread with ease by dismantling the Jets 45-20. Although the Raiders’ two-week rush averages indicate 144.5 yards per game, realize those numbers are skewed somewhat by a few long runs by guys behind Marshawn Lynch (4.0 YPR) on the depth chart.

Derek Carr is averaging 240 pass yards per game with five touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s connected with Michael Crabtree on 12 of 13 targets for 163 yards and three touchdowns. Fellow receiver Amari Cooper – nine receptions on 18 targets – has been quiet since his Week 1 touchdown early in the Titans game.

The Raiders’ focus on the passing game and quick score offense should concern a Redskins defense that has allowed 269 pass yards and 25 points per game through the first two weeks. Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz lit up the Washington secondary for 298 yards (26-39) in Week 1. If you give Derek Carr that type of freedom, Crabtree and Cooper could post monster numbers.

It’s only been two games, but one wonders if the loss of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon is negatively impacting the Redskins passing game. Kirk Cousins is averaging 178 passing yards per game compared to the 307 he averaged in 16 games last season. Terrelle Pryor and Cousins have yet to click – eight receptions on 15 targets – as the offense has leaned on the run.

Because of this, should Kelley miss Week 3, pass-catching Chris Thompson could see an increased workload along with rookie Semaje Perine, who carried the ball 21 times against the Rams (3.7 YPR).

The Raiders’ two-week defensive metrics are somewhat watered down due to the Jets’ desperation to rally in Week 2. Oakland has steadily improved on defense over the past few seasons and has allowed only 18 points and 200 total yards per game this season.

However, if the Redskins can continue to focus on the ground game, the Raiders are allowing 4.8 yards per rush (4.5 YPR in 2016). This is where Perine – a between-the-tackles runner – can eat well, while Thompson remains the top option on passing downs.