Betting Picks

Week 17: Carolina at Atlanta SUN NFL Betting Preview and Pick

Atlanta Falcons coach Dan Quinn thought his team’s Week 17 home game against the NFC South rival Carolina Panthers would be flexed into the Sunday night spot. Panthers coach Ron Rivera thought the same thing. Most of the NFL did, honestly, as Panthers-Falcons is clearly the biggest game on the final Sunday of the regular season. Yet the league opted to not schedule a prime-time game, the first time in 40 years a regular season won’t end on a Sunday or Monday night.

The Falcons (9-6 SU, 6-9 ATS) are 4-point favorites and a victory gets them the NFC’s final wild-card spot and, most likely, a trip to the NFC West champion Los Angeles Rams next weekend. Atlanta could still get the playoff spot with a loss, but only if Seattle is upset as a touchdown home favorite against Arizona.

The Panthers-Falcons, Saints-Bucs and Cardinals-Seahawks games all will kick off at 4:25 p.m. ET, which is important because they are intertwined. The league opted to shift Panthers-Falcons and Saints-Bucs from the 1 p.m. ET window to 4:25 to build as much drama a possible and ensure all teams still alive for the playoffs would have to give maximum effort. The worry about a Sunday night matchup was the earlier results would render that game irrelevant.

Carolina (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS), which gets back star linebacker Thomas Davis from a one-game suspension, could finish anywhere from the conference’s No. 2 seed as NFC South champion to the No. 5 as its top wild-card team. To get the division and a first-round bye requires a Panthers victory, Saints loss in Tampa, Rams home loss to the 49ers and Vikings home loss to the Bears. All those results hitting are unlikely, especially a Minnesota defeat. If New Orleans does beat Tampa Bay as a touchdown favorite, the Panthers will be the No. 5 and probably visit the Saints on wild-card weekend.

The NFC South has been home to the past two NFL MVPs and Super Bowl runners-up. Falcons QB Matt Ryan was the 2016 MVP and the team coughed up a 28-3 third-quarter lead in a Super Bowl stunning loss to New England. No loser of that game has gotten back since the Buffalo Bills lost four straight Super Bowls in the early 1990s. Panthers QB Cam Newton was the 2015 MVP and his team was a league-best 15-1 that regular season but lost Super Bowl 50 in an upset to the Denver Broncos in Peyton Manning’s final game.

The last time Carolina visited Atlanta, Ryan threw for 503 yards and four scores and Julio Jones caught 12 passes for 300 yards and a touchdown in the Falcons’ 48-33 Week 4 victory last year. It was the first time in NFL history teammates had a 500-yard passing and 300-yard receiving game. However, that was in the Georgia Dome, which has since been demolished.

In Week 9 this year, the Panthers beat the visiting Falcons 20-17. Carolina held the ball for nearly 33 minutes by rushing for 201 yards and two scores. Atlanta led 10-0 after a quarter but wouldn’t score again until late in the game.
The home team has covered eight of the past 10 in this series and that trend continues. Back the Falcons as they grab the wild-card spot.