December 21, 2017
Easily the biggest game of the Week 16 NFL schedule is from New Orleans as the Saints host the NFC South rival Atlanta Falcons with all sorts of playoff ramifications in the second meeting between the two in 17 days. Drew Brees & Co. are 6-point favorites.
As things stand in the NFC playoff picture entering Week 16, New Orleans (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) would be the NFC South division champion for the first time since 2011 and the No. 4 seed, meaning a home game on wild-card weekend against the No. 5. That spot is currently held by another NFC South team in Carolina. The Panthers are also 10-4 but lose any head-to-head tiebreaker with the Saints, who swept the season series.
The Saints will win the NFC South this week with a victory and Carolina home loss to Tampa Bay, which isn’t a likely result. The only chance New Orleans has of getting a first-round bye would be to win out – it closes in Tampa Bay – and have the NFC North champion Minnesota Vikings lose both their games. They are in Green Bay on Saturday and home vs. Chicago in Week 17. Neither the Packers nor Bears have anything to play for. Should New Orleans lose this week and Carolina win, the Saints would drop all the way to the NFC’s final wild-card spot heading into Week 17.
It’s a short week for Atlanta (9-5 SU, 6-8 ATS), which wasn’t able to cover a 6-point spread Monday night in a 24-21 win at Tampa Bay. Falcons running back Devonta Freeman had a big game with 126 yards rushing and a touchdown while leading the team with five catches for 68 yards. The Bucs missed a tying 54-yard field goal as time expired. It was the Falcons’ 10th game decided by seven points or fewer this season, most in the NFL. They are 6-4 in them.
The Atlanta victory eliminated Green Bay from playoff contention and is going to make it incredibly hard for the Detroit Lions, Seattle Seahawks or Dallas Cowboys to get in – those latter teams, which both lost to the Falcons earlier in the season, play Sunday, so the loser is out. The Falcons, currently holding down the final wild-card spot, are defending NFC South champions and would repeat if they beat the Saints and then beat the visiting Panthers in Week 17. If Atlanta wins this game, it will be at minimum a wild-card team.
In Week 14 on a Thursday night, Atlanta was a 2.5-point home favorite against the Saints and won 20-17 thanks to an interception of Brees by linebacker Deion Jones in the Falcons end zone with 1:25 left. Matt Ryan wasn’t particularly sharp, throwing three interceptions. Freeman rushed for 94 yards and a touchdown. The Saints lost likely NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Alvin Kamara very early in that game to a concussion or things might have been different. The Pro Bowl selection is healthy now and leads the NFL with 6.6 yards per carry while also being a terrific receiver out of the backfield.
The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their past five on the road, while the Saints are 5-1 ATS in their past six vs. the division. Take New Orleans.