Betting Picks

Week 15: Atlanta at Tampa Bay MNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

The Week 14 Monday night game saw a team with plenty of motivation led by a former MVP and which reached the Super Bowl last season lose a game as a sizable favorite in Florida against an opponent that was simply playing out the string.

We are speaking of the New England Patriots and Tom Brady (a two-time MVP) losing at the disappointing Miami Dolphins. Might that be the beginning of a trend?

The Week 15 Monday night game features a team with plenty of motivation led by a former MVP and which reached the Super Bowl last season play as a 6-point favorite in Florida against an opponent that is simply playing out the string. This time, we are speaking of the Atlanta Falcons and Matt Ryan (the 2016 MVP) at the disappointing Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It’s the penultimate MNF game of the year.

The NFC looks very deep this year so it’s likely going to take 10 victories to reach the playoffs – and even that might not be enough for a club or two. The Falcons (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) are defending NFC South and conference champions who currently hold the final wild-card spot. That’s due to a head-to-head victory over fellow 8-5 team Seattle.

Atlanta will repeat as division champion if it wins out, but the team closes with tough games in New Orleans and home to Carolina. Both the Saints and Panthers are fighting for the NFC South and/or a wild-card spot as well. The Falcons lost earlier in the season at Carolina but come off a huge 20-17 home victory over New Orleans on Thursday in Week 14. Linebacker Deion Jones had one of the best games of his career, capped by an interception of Drew Brees in the Falcons end zone with 1:25 to play that essentially clinched the game.

It’s not often a club will win with its quarterback throwing three picks, but Ryan did for the second time this season (the Falcons also won his first three-pick game in Detroit). Ryan’s passer rating of 55.2 was a season low.

Tampa Bay (4-9 SU, 3-9-1 ATS) was a nine-win team last season but has regressed in every fashion, to the point that second-year coach Dirk Koetter could be fired amid rumors his relationship with franchise quarterback Jameis Winston has become strained. Coaches never win those battles. Winston was picked off twice and lost a fumble last week in a 24-21 home loss to Detroit, Tampa Bay’s third straight defeat.

At this point, it would benefit Tampa to lose out and get as high a 2018 draft pick as possible. The Bucs haven’t been a good December team of late, winning just four of their past 20 in the month.

In Week 12, the Falcons were 10.5-point home favorites and beat Tampa Bay 34-20 behind a monster 12-catch, 253-yard, two-touchdown day from Julio Jones. Ryan threw for 317 yards and a score – the other TD Jones caught was on a trick play. Winston was out injured then, with backup Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing for 283 yards but no scores.

The favorite has covered seven of the past nine in this series and that will continue on Monday. Atlanta wins by a touchdown.