Betting Picks

Week 14: New England at Miami MNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

Not sure if you have heard, but Tom Brady is a pretty good quarterback, and by extension the New England Patriots have been a fair team this century. The Patriots have won the AFC East an incredible 13 times in the past 14 seasons. The only time in that span they didn’t, Brady suffered a season-ending injury in Week 1 of the 2008 campaign.

New England can make it 14 division titles in 15 years on Monday night with a win at the Miami Dolphins, who are 11.5-point underdogs on the NFL odds. Actually, the Pats would clinch Sunday afternoon if Indianapolis wins in Buffalo, but that’s not too likely.

Obviously, the Patriots (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) have bigger goals than some division crown. First up would be the top seed in the AFC playoffs. That is likely going to be decided when New England visits Pittsburgh in Week 15 in the AFC game of the year. Could the Patriots be caught looking ahead to that one a bit here?

Another potential worry sign for Patriots backers is that Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski will miss the Dolphins game. He delivered a cheap shot on Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White in last Sunday’s 23-3 victory. Gronk was penalized on the play but not ejected from the game. He’s frankly lucky the suspension was only one game as are the Patriots that they will have him in Pittsburgh.

Gronkowski clearly was frustrated in being called for four penalties against the Bills and hit a defenseless White while he was on the ground following an interception. Gronk has 55 catches for 849 yards and seven TDs in 11 games this year. He missed a Week 5 game in Tampa due to injury, a 19-14 Patriots win. If any team knows how to plug and play someone else without missing a beat, it’s the Patriots. They have now won at least 10 regular-season games in 15 straight seasons. The record is 16 by the San Francisco 49ers from 1983-1998. Brady has won 55 games in December, the most by a starting quarterback in any calendar month in league history.

The Dolphins (5-7 SU, 4-6-2 ATS) were a wild-card team last year but the only way they have a shot at returning to the playoffs would be to win out – and even that might not be enough. Miami did end a five-game losing streak this past Sunday in a 35-9 victory over a terrible Denver Broncos side. Jay Cutler returned from a one-game concussion absence and threw for 235 yards and two scores but was picked off twice. Kenyan Drake had only the second rushing touchdown of the season for the Fins and a career-high 120 yards on 23 carries.

Miami has lost its past three vs. the Patriots, who were the biggest betting favorites this NFL season at -17 just two weeks ago and covered in a 35-17 win over the Dolphins. Brady had four touchdown passes, two to Gronkowski. Rex Burkhead had a rushing and receiving score. Cutler was out then, and Matt Moore threw two picks and was sacked seven times.

New England wins this game, but it is just 1-4 ATS in its past five in Miami and has lost three of its past four there. Take the points.