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Week 11: Atlanta at Seattle MNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

Sometimes, teams in the same conference but different divisions can go up to four years without playing each other with how the NFL’s schedule rotation works. The Atlanta Falcons are in the NFC South and Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West, but they will play Monday night for the third time in 13 months.

The Seahawks are 3-point home favorites at CenturyLink Field, perhaps the toughest place to play in the league.

Last regular season, Atlanta went to Seattle as a 7-point underdog and lost 26-24 despite outscoring the Seahawks 21-0 in the third quarter. Steven Hauschka’s 44-yard field goal with 1:57 remaining was the winner. Atlanta did appear to get jobbed by the officials on its possession after that field goal as Richard Sherman pretty clearly committed pass interference on Julio Jones, but it wasn’t called. The Falcons won’t have to worry about Sherman this time. More on that shortly.

The two teams also met in the old Georgia Dome in the divisional round of the playoffs. Atlanta was -6.5 and rolled to a 36-20 victory behind 338 yards passing and three scores from Matt Ryan. Russell Wilson, meanwhile, was picked off twice.

It’s possible the Seahawks and Falcons play again come January, but they won’t face off in the 2018 regular season unless they both finish in the same position in their respective divisions.

The Falcons (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) are third in the NFC South, two games behind New Orleans, and are seventh overall in the conference playoff standings. The last wild-card spot in the NFC is currently held by Seattle (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS), so the winner here would have a potentially crucial tiebreaker. The Seahawks are a game behind the Rams in the NFC West.

There will be at least one key player on each side who won’t play Monday. For Seattle, it’s Sherman, arguably the NFL’s best cornerback since he arrived in the league as a 2011 fifth-round draft pick out of Stanford. Sherman ruptured his Achilles’ tendon in last Thursday’s 22-16 win at Arizona. He leads the NFL by far in interceptions since 2011 with 32. The Legion of Boom won’t be the same without him. It deprives football fans this week of a terrific individual matchup with Atlanta’s Jones.

On the bright side, Seattle coach Pete Carroll is expecting to have Pro Bowl safety Earl Thomas back Monday. He has missed the past two games with a hamstring injury.

Atlanta played likely its best all-around game of the season this past Sunday in a 27-7 home win over Dallas. The Falcons lost top running back and two-time Pro Bowler Devonta Freeman early with a concussion, and he’s not expected Monday. He has rushed for 515 yards and five scores while catching 19 balls for 137 yards. The Falcons do have a very capable No. 2 in Tevin Coleman. He had a season-high 83 yards on a season-high 20 carries against Dallas.

As noted above, it’s incredibly hard to win in Seattle, while Atlanta is a dome team that often isn’t the same outdoors – see a 1-4 ATS road record this year (only cover was in Detroit’s dome). Lay the points.