Betting Picks

Week 10: New England at Denver SNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

From 2012-15, a Patriots-Broncos game was can’t-miss television because it featured the greatest individual rivalry in NFL history between quarterbacks Tom Brady and Peyton Manning – maybe the two best quarterbacks ever. While Brady was 11-6 vs. Manning dating to Peyton’s Colts days, Manning did get the last laugh in the AFC title game following the 2015 season on the way to winning his second Super Bowl title before retiring.

Unfortunately, a Brady-Brock Osweiler matchup isn’t quite as intriguing, but that’s what we have on Sunday night in Week 10 as the Patriots visit Denver as 7.5-point favorites.

New England (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) comes out of its bye week in its usual spot atop the AFC East and still as the favorite to win Super Bowl LII. The Pats have won four straight games and Brady could win his third career NFL MVP Award. The 40-year-old leads the NFL with 2,541 passing yards and is second to Kansas City’s Alex Smith in rating.

Patriots coach Bill Belichick took a calculated gamble during the bye in trading Brady’s high-ceiling backup quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, to San Francisco for a 2018 second-round pick. Garoppolo was set for free agency after this season, but it’s a risk. Yes, Brady seems bionic, but, again, he’s 40. His new backup is one of his former ones in Brian Hoyer. He was released by the 49ers after they got Garoppolo.

There was some talk that the Broncos (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS), losers of four straight, might turn to 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch at quarterback this week, but he’s reportedly still not fully recovered from a shoulder injury that has kept him out all season. First-year coach Vance Joseph benched a struggling Trevor Siemian for Week 9 in Philadelphia. Osweiler was just 19 of 38 for 208 yards with a TD and two picks in a 51-23 blowout loss. Joseph is only committing to Osweiler starting against the Patriots and said he would re-evaluate things after that game.

When you aren’t a good offensive team, the last thing you can afford is turnovers. Alas, Denver has given it away 19 times, with only the sad-sack Cleveland Browns having more turnovers. The Broncos defense had been one of the NFL’s best before getting shredded by the Eagles. One gets the sense that the defensive players are tired of trying to carry the offense. Maybe Osweiler will play well Sunday considering the Patriots are last in total and pass defense.

In his first stint with Denver, Osweiler started a Week 12 game in 2015 vs. the Patriots and led a 30-24 OT comeback win with Manning out injured. New England entered that game 10-0.  The Patriots also visited Denver last year and won 16-3 – New England’s lowest-scoring game of 2016 with Brady starting. He was just 16-for-32 for 188 yards. Siemian threw for 282 yards and an interception.

Denver has won and covered four of its past five games as a home dog overall, including Week 2 vs. Dallas. That half point could be crucial, but take the Broncos here in desperation mode.