November 9, 2017
The Miami Dolphins play a third straight primetime game Monday night at Carolina to close out Week 10, and the first two haven’t gone well for the Fins. Oddsmakers don’t expect a victory in Charlotte, either, as the Panthers are 9-point favorites.
The NFL’s trade deadline this season was Halloween, and both the Dolphins and Panthers surprisingly traded one of their best offensive players despite each club still having very legitimate playoff hopes. The immediate fallout has been mixed.
Miami (4-4 SU, 3-3-2 ATS) sent 2016 Pro Bowl running back Jay Ajayi to Philadelphia for a fourth-round pick and then lost 27-24 at home last Sunday night against Oakland. The Dolphins went with a two-headed monster at tailback in Kenyan Drake and Damien Williams. The team rushed for 86 yards on 18 carries, a solid 4.8 yards per carry (that would be tied for the NFL team lead entering Week 10). However, Miami still ranks 30th in rushing yards per game (77.6) and is the only club in the NFL without a rushing score. Carolina’s defense ranks No. 2 against the run (78.4 ypg).
The good news from the Oakland loss was that quarterback Jay Cutler returned from a one-game injury absence (cracked ribs) and had his best game in at least two years, completing 81 percent of his passes for 311 yards and three scores. Almost impossibly, it marked the first game of his career with at least 300 yards, three passing scores and no interceptions. Tom Brady does that multiple times per season. Cutler goes against a Panthers defense ranked sixth overall.
This is Miami’s 83rd Monday night game, the most in league history. The Dolphins are 41-41. Now that they are playing Carolina on MNF, that leaves only six teams Miami hasn’t faced in that time slot (Ravens, Texans, Lions, Vikings, Rams and Seahawks). Alas, the team has failed to cover its past seven on Monday.
Carolina (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) traded No. 1 receiver Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo for third- and seventh-round picks in 2018. The thinking there was that the big but slow Benjamin was practically an identical player to No. 2 WR Devin Funchess. The Panthers wanted to get more speed on the field at wideout to help open up the field for the running game.
That strategy worked in Week 9 as the Panthers beat Atlanta 20-17 for their second straight win. Carolina coach Ron Rivera doesn’t hide the fact that he’d like to win by pounding the ball and with a strong defense. The Panthers ran for 201 yards vs. Atlanta, led by QB Cam Newton’s 86 yards and a TD on nine carries. Rookie Christian McCaffrey, who will become even more important to this offense now, carried a career-high 15 times for 66 yards and a score. He remained a key part of the passing game, which managed only 137 yards, with five catches.
Miami leads the all-time series with Carolina 4-1 but lost the last matchup in 2013. The Panthers are the better team, but they play so conservative offensively that 9 points is too many to give. Carolina is also just 1-4 ATS in its past five at home. Take the Dolphins in what should be a low-scoring affair.