Game Matchup
The NFL opens the season annually with the Super Bowl champion hosting a marquee opponent on national television on a Thursday night. That was a great addition back in the early 2000s. For the Sunday night opener in 2018, the Chicago Bears visit the Green Bay Packers. The league doesn’t have any specifications for its SNF opener, although it obviously wants to make TV partner NBC (which also has the Thursday opener) happy. Now, it is time to look ahead to some odds and an NFL betting pick for this game.
If Bears-Packers does boffo TV ratings, and it should, then perhaps the league should make the SNF opener every year a mandatory rivalry game. There may be no better rivalry than Bears-Packers as it’s the oldest in the NFL. Alas for Chicago fans, this has been not much of a competitive rivalry of late. Green Bay has lost just twice to its southern neighbor in the past 16 meetings including playoffs. NFL oddsmakers expect more of the same on Sunday from Lambeau Field. Green Bay is favored at -7.5, the second-biggest favorite on the Week 1 NFL betting board behind New Orleans -9.5 vs. Tampa Bay.
The Packers are largely the same team as last season, although the club surprisingly cut long-time receiver Jordy Nelson. He had been the favorite target of superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Speaking of Rodgers, he’s now the highest-paid player in NFL history. It is deservedly so, as the two times Rodgers has been seriously injured in his career, Green Bay has crashed and burned.
That includes last year when Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6. He didn’t make it back until Week 15, and by then it was essentially too late to save the season. Green Bay missed the playoffs for the first time since 2008, which was Rodgers’ first year as the full-time starter in place of a guy named Brett Favre. But with Rodgers under center, the Packers could be a frequent NFL betting pick this season.
Keep an eye on Jimmy Graham. The former All-Pro tight end moved to Green Bay from Seattle to be Rodgers’ new target, preferably in the red zone. Graham caught ten touchdowns last season, his fourth time reaching double figures in touchdowns. Rodgers and Graham also connected for an eight-yard score in the preseason. This could be a deadly combination.
Frankly, the last three Bears’ coaches – Lovie Smith, Marc Trestman and John Fox – have been fired in part because they couldn’t beat the hated Packers. Now, it’s Matt Nagy’s turn as the former Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator makes his head-coaching debut. He has brought the Bears out of the stone ages with his schemes.
At least, that’s what is being reported because Nagy played it close to the vest in the preseason. He barely played any key offensive players. An interesting decision to say the least considering Nagy has a very inexperienced second-year quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky and four new pass-catchers for him in Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Anthony Miller and Trey Burton. Bears GM Ryan Pace made a bold trade to land Miller in the second round of this year’s draft; the other three were free-agent additions.
This should also be the debut of Bears first-round pick and linebacker Roquan Smith. The former Georgia standout missed the entire preseason holding out and then due to a hamstring injury. It’s also the presumed Chicago debut of 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack, whom the Bears stunningly acquired from the Raiders over the weekend.
The Packers opened up this NFL betting line as 9-point favorites, but that has dropped to 7.5 points. Much of that could be down to the Bears’ acquisition of Mack, one of the most feared pass rushers in the league. Green Bay’s offensive line looked shaky at times last season, and you have Rodgers coming back from his injury. The Packers should still be your NFL betting pick, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Mack made a big impact. That is, if the Bears play him. The over/under opened at 48, but has dropped a mere half-point to 47.5.
| ATS Winner | Odds |
|---|---|
| Packers | -7.5 |
September 4, 2018
