Betting Picks

Colts at Patriots: TNF NFL Week 5 Betting Preview and Pick

The Thursday night game of Week 5 between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots is about two franchises that have major animus toward one another thanks to past episodes like New England’s Deflategate and Indianapolis’ Josh McDaniels non-hiring. But what does the TNF NFL Week 5 betting line look like for this AFC showdown?

The Patriots are 10-point favorites for Thursday night’s matchup and will be our against the spread pick (although we’d recommend buying that down to -9.5 points). The total is set at 53 points at sportsbooks.

Why New England will cover the TNF NFL Week 5 betting spread

Everyone was worrying about the possible end of the Patriots’ dynasty when they lost back-to-back games in Jacksonville and Detroit. New England hadn’t lost three in a row since 2002 and was never in danger of that happening this past Sunday in a 38-7 home rout of Miami to pull within a game of the Dolphins in the AFC East. The Patriots proved that they are still the AFC East favorites.

Brady was his usual excellent self in throwing for 274 yards and three scores, although he was intercepted twice. Rookie Sony Michel had his best game with 112 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries. The bad news from Sunday was Pro Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski leaving with an ankle injury. Too early to know if Gronk plays Thursday, but the quick turnaround won’t help him.

Brady will get back a key receiver this week as the four-game suspension of Julian Edelman is now finished.

Indianapolis betting notes for Thursday

The Colts really aren’t that far from being 4-0 instead of 1-3. Simply put, first-year coach Frank Reich blew Sunday’s 37-34 overtime loss to Houston by bafflingly going for it on fourth-and-four from his own 43 late in overtime when a punt all but assures a tie. Luck’s pass was incomplete, and the Texans didn’t have to go far to kick the winning field goal. Reich said he didn’t believe in “playing for the tie.” Still better than a loss.

On the bright side, it’s clear that Luck’s shoulder is healed as he was stellar vs. Houston in throwing for 464 yards (career high) and four scores. The Colts can’t run the ball whatsoever, though, so Luck had to throw it way too many times. In addition, Luck’s No. 1 receiver, T.Y. Hilton, was limping around after with a hamstring injury and isn’t expected to play in Thursday’s game, according to early reports.

New England vs. Indianapolis line movement

Not much movement yet for the TNF NFL Week 5 betting line, although some books did open this at Patriots -10.5 and with a total of 53.5.

New England vs. Indianapolis matchup trends

• The Colts have dropped the past seven in this series by an average margin of 19 points.
• New England has won nine straight at home and covered in eight of those games.