Betting Picks

Patriots at Lions: SNF NFL Week 3 Betting Preview and Pick

Heading into this SNF NFL Week 3 betting matchup, bettors are going to hear the name Matt Patricia often this week. The former New England Patriots defensive coordinator and current Detroit Lions head coach faces off against his mentor for the first time as the Lions host Bill Belichick and the Patriots on Sunday night in Week 3.

Who should you wager on in this SNF NFL Week 3 betting matchup?

New England is a 7-point favorite and will be our ATS pick. The total is 51.5.

The Patriots are 7-4 all-time vs. Detroit and rolled in the last meeting 34-9 in 2014.

Why New England will cover the spread

You can just about count on one hand the number of times the Patriots have lost back-to-back games under Belichick and Tom Brady. They last did at the end of the 2015 season and it might have cost them a Super Bowl. The Patriots then had to go to Denver for the AFC title game (instead of hosting that game) and lost.

The Patriots come off a shockingly one-sided 31-20 loss in Jacksonville on Sunday in a rematch of last season’s AFC title game. “Blake Bortles was better than Tom Brady” perhaps was just typed for the first time. Jacksonville, not exactly an offensive powerhouse, put up 481 yards.

Frankly, that result is the worst possible thing that could have happened to the Lions. In addition, the Patriots got Brady a new toy this week in trading for Cleveland receiver Josh Gordon. He is as talented as they come, and if any organization can help Gordon deal with his off-field demons, it’s the Patriots, who are still the favorites in the AFC East odds.

Detroit betting notes for Sunday

Patricia’s first head-coaching gig has not gone as expected as the Lions have surrendered 78 points in losses to the Jets and 49ers. Detroit is allowing 179.5 rushing yards per game, easily the worst in the NFL.

One positive from Sunday’s defeat in San Francisco was the Lions showed some heart after trailing 30-13 in the fourth. Matthew Stafford bounced back from a horrible game vs. the Jets by throwing for 347 yards and three scores but he had 53 attempts, which is too many.

The Lions could be down their top two defensive players here as end Ziggy Ansah missed the 49ers game with a shoulder injury and Pro Bowl cornerback Darius Slay left with a concussion.

Detroit vs. New England line movement

This SNF NFL Week 3 betting line opened and is still at 6.5 points at some books. This could be an important difference from seven points points if backing the Patriots as we recommend. The total has skyrocketed from an open of 47, likely in part due to those Detroit defensive injuries/problems.

Detroit vs. New England matchup trends

• This is potentially shaping up to be one of the shootouts of Week 3. The total has gone over in eight of Detroit’s past 10 at home.
• Detroit has lost its past five as a dog and covered only one of those.
• New England is featured on prime time a lot and has won 17 of its past 21 at night.