Betting Picks

Saints at Cowboys: TNF NFL Week 13 Betting Preview and Pick

The weekly Thursday games in the NFL have only been around since 2006, so it’s quite rare for any club to play back-to-back Thursdays – much less have a chance to win on the day in consecutive weeks. However, that’s the case to start Week 13 as the New Orleans Saints visit the Dallas Cowboys in a terrific TNF matchup. Who will come out on top in these Saints vs Cowboys odds?

The game should draw huge TV ratings and betting action because the Saints look like the NFL’s best team, and the Cowboys are simply the league’s most popular and polarizing.

This could be a playoff preview. Looking at the current NFC standings, the Saints would be the top seed as things stand now at 10-1. They are going to win the NFC South and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with the 10-1 L.A. Rams. At 6-5, Dallas is tied atop the NFC East with Washington, which seems likely to fall off after recently losing starting QB Alex Smith to a broken leg.

The Saints vs Cowboys odds have New Orleans as a 7.5-point favorite Thursday, but the Cowboys will be our against the spread pick. The total is 53.

Why Dallas will cover the Saints vs Cowboys odds

Are the Cowboys as good as the Saints? Most certainly not, but Dallas is playing its best football in winning three straight. Plus, New Orleans surely won’t end the regular season on a 15-game winning streak. The Saints have looked mortal in close road wins in Atlanta and Baltimore.

Dallas will unquestionably ride tailback Ezekiel Elliott, the NFL’s leading rusher. The team is 5-1 this year when he rushes for 100 yards, which includes 121 yards and a TD in the 31-23 Thanksgiving win over Washington. He had a season-high 31 touches when including receptions, and Dallas is 6-1 since Elliott was drafted when he had at least 30 touches. In the three-game winning streak, he’s averaging 28.7 touches and 177 scrimmage yards.

The Cowboys have been an excellent home team this year, aside from a puzzling 28-14 loss to the Titans in Week 9.

New Orleans betting notes for Thursday

Elliott will go up against the NFL’s No. 1 rush defense, which allows only 73.2 yards per game. The defense overall has really improved since allowing 37 points in Atlanta in Week 3. Throw out a shootout win over the stellar Rams, and New Orleans hasn’t allowed more than 23 points since then. The team surrendered just 17 on Thanksgiving in a 14-point victory over the Falcons. The Saints forced four turnovers and had a season-high six sacks.

Drew Brees burnished his MVP candidacy last Thursday – still hard to fathom he hasn’t won that award yet – by throwing for four touchdowns despite his receiving corps being thinned by injuries. Those four TDs went to unknowns Tommylee Lewis, Austin Carr, Dan Arnold and Keith Kirkwood. Unless you are a Saints fan or went to the college of one of those guys, you probably have never heard of them.

Dallas vs. New Orleans line movement

The NFL odds for this game opened with the spread at -7 at some books, and is still there. The total has been listed as high as 53.5.

Dallas vs. New Orleans matchup trends

• The Cowboys have won four of their past five Thursday games.
• Dallas is 15-7-1 ATS in its past 23 games following an ATS victory.
• The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings.