September 28, 2018
The AFC West rival Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos usually play one prime-time game per season. It feels like that one always is full of late-game drama. The two square off in Denver on Monday to close Week 4, with unbeaten Kansas City a 5-point favorite and a total of 55 that’s easily the highest of the week on the NFL odds board. The Broncos will be our against the spread pick for this MNF NFL Week 4 betting matchup.
It’s still early, but it’s a very important game in a division that has three playoff contenders: these two and potentially the Los Angeles Chargers (sorry, Oakland Raiders fans). The Broncos are looking to end a five-game losing streak to the Chiefs.
Sometimes going with one’s gut on a bet just feels right even if many trends are conflicting with that choice. That’s pretty much the case here. Are the Broncos anywhere near as good as the Chiefs offensively? No chance. However, Denver is miles better defensively and also has one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL with a rabid crowd and playing at altitude.
The Broncos are 2-0 at home this year, beating the Seahawks and Raiders – two not great teams. Denver visited a good Baltimore side on Sunday and lost 27-14. New starting quarterback Case Keenum struggled, throwing for just 192 yards (104 entering the fourth quarter) without a TD and a pick; he has five INTs already. The good news Monday: Keenum now goes against a Kansas City defense allowing the most points per drive to opponents in the 2018 season.
Starting cornerback Tramaine Brock left vs. the Ravens with an injury but is expected to play Monday. So is fellow CB Adam Jones, who missed the Baltimore game. They will be needed.
There’s simply no argument that the biggest story through three weeks in the NFL is Chiefs’ second-year quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who has thrown for 896 yards, 13 touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s your NFL MVP thus far, hands down.
The 3-0 Chiefs lead the NFL by a mile in scoring at 39.3 points per game and have played three pretty good teams – if not good defenses – in the Chargers, Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers. The only other 3-0 teams entering Week 4 were the Los Angeles Rams and Miami Dolphins. If there’s one reason for concern with Kansas City, it’s that it has allowed at least 27 points in each game and a total of 92. Mahomes can’t be Joe Montana every game. Right?
Pass-rushing linebacker Dee Ford injured his groin vs. the 49ers and could miss Monday. Kansas City already is thin on guys who can pressure the quarterback.
The spread for this MNF NFL Week 4 betting matchup opened as low as 3.5 points at some books and the total has dropped a point at some. The under is a slight favorite.