Betting Picks

Packers at Seahawks: TNF NFL Week 11 Betting Preview and Pick

To kick off Week 11 of the NFL season on Thursday night, the Green Bay Packers visit the Seattle Seahawks for the first time since the NFC Championship Game following the 2014 season. Seattle would win that game in overtime but lose a classic Super Bowl to the Patriots. Who will come out on top in these Packers vs Seahawks odds?

The Seahawks and Packers have also played in each of the past three regular seasons. All in Green Bay, and Aaron Rodgers and company won them all. It was 17-9 last year in Week 1.

Seattle is a 2.5-point favorite Thursday and will be our against the spread pick in the Packers vs Seahawks odds. The total is set at 49.5 points. The loser here is going to find it very tough to make the playoffs.

Why Seattle will cover the Packers vs Seahawks odds

It’s been a streaky series in sets of three. As noted above, the Packers have won the past three. Including that NFC title game, the Seahawks won the three before that. The Packers won the three before that, also including a playoff game. Green Bay won the first three all-time in the series. Seattle then won the next three.

The fact the Packers are flying two time zones west bodes rather well for the Seahawks. How well? Since the NFL instituted the Thursday night games on a full-time basis in 2006, no team flying at least two time zones west has ever won or even covered a TNF game in 11 tries. In addition, the Seahawks are 14-2 straight up and 13-3 ATS under Pete Carroll in home night games.

Green Bay betting notes for Thursday

Green Bay is winless on the road this year, but 4-0-1 at home following Sunday’s easy 31-12 win over Miami. For once, Rodgers wasn’t the big offensive story, but another Aaron was: Aaron Jones. He rushed for a career-high 145 yards and two scores. Rodgers has been prodding his coaching staff to get Jones more carries as he leads the NFL in yards per tote.

Rodgers did throw two TD passes, both to No. 1 receiver Davante Adams. The bad news for Green Bay is that a banged-up defense saw two more key guys leave injured in cornerback Kentrell Brice (ankle) and linebacker Nick Perry (knee). Brice likely won’t play Thursday, and we’re not clear on Perry, either.

Green Bay vs. Seattle line movement

The NFL odds for both the line and the total are largely unchanged from their opening Sunday night.

Green Bay vs. Seattle matchup trends

• The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their past six games on the road.
• The Seahawks are 7-0-1 ATS in their previous eight games on a Thursday.
• The home team has covered six of the past seven in the series.