Betting Picks

Week 16: Oakland at Philadelphia MNF NFL Betting Preview and Pick

There has been some talk if/when the NFL expands its playoff field by one team in each conference that to accommodate the extra two games overall on wild-card weekend the league will have to add a Monday night matchup. But until that happens, the final MNF game of each season will be in Week 16, and that’s what we have this week with Oakland visiting Philadelphia. The Eagles opened as 7.5-point favorites but are now -9.

Week 16 is also the last time teams play opponents outside their own division. The Raiders close next Sunday at the LA Chargers in a game that might not matter for Oakland. In fact, neither might Monday’s game.

That’s because the Raiders suffered a crushing 20-17 home loss to Dallas last Sunday night. QB Derek Carr tried to reach out for the end-zone pylon and the likely game-winning touchdown with about 30 seconds left, but the ball slipped from his hand before Carr crossed the goal line (he should have used two hands), rolled into the end zone and then out of bounds. That was a third-down play so presumably at a minimum the Raiders would have at least sent the game to overtime with a chip-shot field goal on fourth down. Instead, it was a touchback, Cowboys ball and game over.

To earn an AFC wild-card spot, the Raiders (6-8 SU, 4-8-2 ATS) have to win out and, to make it as simple as possible, finish in a four-way tie along with Buffalo, Miami and Tennessee, or a five-way tie that includes the Chargers but not Baltimore. Thus, by Sunday afternoon the Raiders could be eliminated depending on what happens in other games. It has been a disappointing year for a team that looked on the rise following a 12-win 2016 season and added running back Marshawn Lynch via trade in the offseason.

Philadelphia (12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS) has been a tremendous bet with those 10 ATS victories and is the NFC East champion. The only way the Eagles will not be the NFC’s top seed is if they lose to the Raiders on Monday, then home to Dallas on New Year’s Eve AND the Minnesota Vikings win Saturday night in Green Bay and Week 17 vs. Chicago. So should the Vikings be upset by the Packers, the Eagles would have nothing to play for Monday night.

The Super Bowl futures of Philly got longer after NFL MVP favorite Carson Wentz tore his ACL in a Week 14 win over the Rams, but backup Nick Foles acquitted himself quite well in last Sunday’s 34-29 win at the Giants with four touchdown passes. The defense, however, allowed 504 yards and a season high in points for a bad Giants offense. Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz chalked it up to a lack of urgency – and a Wentz hangover could have played a role.

Oakland and Philadelphia have split 12 all-time meetings. That includes a Raiders 27-10 victory in Super Bowl XV. The Eagles’ only other Super Bowl appearance was a loss in XXXIX to New England. This is one of those games where it’s smart to wait and see what level of motivation each team has. As things stand now, however, take the Raiders getting more than a TD. They have covered four of their past five Monday games.